According to economist, historian, and journalist Marc Levinson, the future trading landscape might witness a shift towards more fragmented and regional trade, potentially rendering large container vessels less relevant. Levinson discussed on The Freight Buyers' Club how the practicality of these massive ships is questionable, especially when considering the economies of scale initially anticipated.
Levinson elaborated on the changing dynamics of international trade, which is moving towards shorter average distances, driven by regionalization and the emergence of new trading nations with closer geographical proximities. This shift challenges the efficiency of very large ships, particularly for routes not extending to traditional long distances, such as Shanghai to Rotterdam. "So you might want a 25,000 TEU ship to carry freight between Shanghai and Rotterdam, but is it really the most efficient way to carry freight between Shanghai and Mumbai, or Singapore or Indonesia, or places where you're now seeing substantial industrial growth?" Levinson questioned the suitability of large vessels for these evolving trade patterns.
Furthermore, Levinson touched upon the geopolitical landscape, mentioning the potential implications of tariffs proposed by former US President Donald Trump as "a threat to trade". Despite the growing trend of protectionist policies, Levinson believes the fears of a return to mercantilism or a new Cold War are exaggerated, though he acknowledges a shift towards more government-driven trade segments.
Source: container-news.com
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